US: 21 Years of Nominal SP500 Operating Earnings Data

The data presented below displays earnings per share, 6 year median earnings per share and index high/low close data over the past 21 years. It also includes PE and cyclically adjusted PE ratios (PE6 is Price divided by 6 year median EPS) over the 21 year period.

Below in the table is a summary of 6 year (economic cycle), 10 year (Decade cycle) and 21 year  (Secular Cycle) multiples at various percentile and average levels.  It displays the standard deviation for each of these cycles too.  It also displays indicative values, which reflect where the Index would need to trade to be at the various percentile and average levels over the past 6/10/21 year cycles. And of course it also includes indicative levels for average/median + and - one standard deviation to allow an assessment of valuation risk. 

Right at the bottom of the spreadsheet, you will find a summary of index levels which could prevail one year from now; these levels price the index at forward four quarter earnings estimates multiplied by current multiples, average multiples, average plus 1 standard deviation multiples, average plus 2 standard deviation multiples, average minus 1 standard deviation multiples and average minus 2 standard deviations multiples.